Islamabad Diary

Islamabad Diary

Thus breaks a new dawn in Pakistan

STATECRAFT BY HAPPYMON JACOB
Pakistan is changing, primarily due to its latest experiment with democracy. The change is also the result of a variety of other related factors: the global war on terror and its impact on Pakistan and Afghanistan, the rising economic, political and social costs of a grand strategy – against India and Afghanistan – gone astray, the burning North West Frontier Province, and a host of other factors. Pressing regional security concerns, fear of an internal breakdown of law and order, international suspicions, disturbing levels of American interference, pangs of political transition: Pakistan has its hands full. What we will witness in Pakistan in the next few months is a radical policy shift, all over again. The direction of that shift is likely to be guided by enlightened moderation and demands of necessity. What does this shift mean to Kashmir and India? Will the new political dispensation in Pakistan review and reverse all that was done by Pervez Musharraf? It is bad news, if it happens. Review they will the Musharraf policies but are unlikely to reverse them, at least those pertaining to India and Kashmir. Musharraf’s Kashmir policy is not only popular but also seems to have taken a life of its own. Instead of abandoning the new policy and the peace process in general, the patrons of the new dispensation are likely to own them up claiming it as their own. My visit to Islamabad for the Pugwash meeting during the last weekend did coincide with the emergence of a new Pakistan with a new set of leaders and policies. Our meetings with the political leadership, retired officials, journalists and academics strengthened our understanding that the new course that Pakistan is taking today will not only determine Pakistan’s future but will also have lasting impact on the region as a whole. The Pakistani state and nation is rattled from many fronts today – Afghanistan, NWFP, Kashmir policy and relationship with India, Balochistan, religious extremism, and political uncertainty. Pakistan needs to find solutions to all of them, and find them really soon.
Zardari the Businessman Asif Ali Zardari, the husband of the late Benazir Bhuttoo, is arguably the most powerful politician in Pakistan today, and he knows it. From being dismissed as a mere ten percent of Pakistani politics to being the kingmaker in Pakistan, Zardari has come a long way: today he refers to Pakistanis as ‘my people’. Even as he is fast learning the art of politics, he remains to be a ruthless and dispassionate businessman by instincts and temperament. He understands ‘profit’ and ‘benefit’ and is willing to do business in and on Kashmir with India. Impulsive though he is as Musharraf, it was evident to me when I called on him at the Zardari House in Islamabad that his business instincts will serve him well in weighing Pakistan’s foreign policy options in the days to come. One can confidently bet on the fact that Zardari will not act on the basis of mere emotions, rhetoric, and ideological baggage for he doesn’t understand them and wouldn’t abide by them if he ever understands them. This needs to be seen as a welcome sign for India and Kashmir.
Attique the Visionary? Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan has changed a lot ever since he became the Prime Minister of Pakistani Kashmir. The reserved and quiet Attique has become a much more forthcoming, engaging and decisive statesman today. He seems to have a vision for Kashmir and was willing to stick his neck out when he was asked about his opinion on Musharraf’s policies on Kashmir. He not only said that whatever good has been achieved between India and Pakistan on Kashmir will remain in place but also said that the peace process will be taken to its logical conclusion. The willingness and the realization of the need to do business on Kashmir were evident to us during our conversation with him at his Islamabad office. One only hopes that this enthusiasm and political will last through the years to come.
The Way Ahead While the exact contents of ‘new’ Pakistan’s new Kashmir policy are yet to be formed, as is the case with political dynamics itself there, there is nothing to be unnecessarily cautious about it either. Indian government should now get out of its over-cautious wait and watch (ad nausium) approach and reach out to Pakistan’s new political masters. Any delay in doing so will only make things worse between the two countries. Manmohan Singh and his government should now stop wasting their time on the Indo-US nuclear deal and reach out to its extremely important neighbor.
The Wildcard The Pakistan army is unlikely to rock the political boat in Pakistan for at least some time to come. Musharraff is the most disliked man in today’s Pakistan and is on his way out. From the politicians to academics to the cab drivers, everyone dislikes him in Pakistan. This will give more leverage to the political forces in the country. What remains to be seen is the conduct of the ISI which depends upon whoever controls it. One question that no one seems to have an answer to is who is going to be in control of the ISI: is it the Army Chief, the President or the Prime Minister? A lot of what might happen in the future depends on this crucial factor.

(Source: Greater Kashmir, April 2, 2008. URL: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/full_story.asp?Date=2_4_2008&ItemID=57&cat=11 )