Kabul burns, Kashmir burns too
STATE CRAFT BY HAPPYMON JACOB
Violence seems to be returning to the troubled and unstable region stretching from Kashmir to Kabul. The region is riddled by daily incidents of bomb blasts, clashes between security forces and militias (ranging from Hizbul Mujahidin to the resurgent Taliban) and killings of scores of non-combatants. While Afghanistan has almost always been in turmoil ever since the US takeover of that country in 2001, the ongoing peace process between India and Pakistan and the ‘stable‘ leadership of Pervez Musharraf had apparently been successful in controlling the spate of violent incidents in other parts of the region. Monday’s Indian embassy bombing in Kabul killing the Indian Counselor and the Military Attaché among many others, increasing levels of violence in almost all cities of Pakistan and the unrest in Kashmir (incomparable though they are) shows that there are much deeper and graver problems that we are faced with which require more than cosmetic treatment. Why is it that the four year old Indo-Pak peace process and the six year old Afghan reconstruction efforts don’t seem to be able to stabilize the region?
In seeking an answer for this important question, I do not intend to go into the history of the conflicts or the geopolitical dynamics in the region. Looking back at history and finding those responsible for in order to attach responsibility and blame would do no good. To say that the most significant contemporary reason for this spate of violence is the levels of political instability in the region would perhaps be begging the question. However, political instability, lack of strong leadership with popular support and an absence of political will, one could argue, have been contributing to the current spell of violence in the region.
Pakistan: who is in charge?
Pakistan, indeed, is at the centre of this violence-hit region stretching from Kashmir to Kabul. And so the severe political instability in that country seems to be responsible, to a great extent, for the increasing incidents of violence in the region. To say so is no Pakistan bashing, but, in fact, merely echoing what many responsible analysts in Pakistan are repeatedly saying today. When Gen. (retd.) Pervez Musharraf was in charge in Islamabad, there was in existence a political authority that was capable and willing to take on the perpetrators of violence in the region and talk to the leaders in the neighboring countries. One did hope that Pakistan’s not-so-smooth transition to democracy could bring peace into the region: today it so looks that it was a pipedream. While the political class in Pakistan is fighting among themselves, the Army and the ISI seem to be having different geopolitical designs vis-à-vis both India and Afghanistan. The man who had taken the peace process this far, Musharraff, seems not just powerless to do anything about it, but is counting his days as President. This has sent a message to the extremists in the country: make use of the prevailing political instability and strike at will. Various Pakistani provinces are simmering with discontent: NWFP, despite the election of Awami National Party (ANP), is still out of reach and riddled with violence. There are daily bomb blasts in Pakistani cities and Baloch rebels continue to resist the Punjabi rule: Nawab Khair Baksh Marri, the head of the largest Baloch tribe, the Marris, recently said in an interview “I can co-exist with a pig but not with a Punjabi”.
Afghanistan: a failing state?
There is no political stability in Afghanistan either – Karzai is not even able to control what happens in capital Kabul let alone rid the country of violence. The confused western strategies in Afghanistan and political anarchy in Pakistan explain, to a great extent, the persistence of violence in Afghanistan. Monday’s Indian embassy bombing needs to be seen in this context. I do not dismiss the claim about Pakistani involvement in this attack (because of the uneasiness that many sections of the Pakistani state has about the Indian influence in Afghanistan), but the Pakistani leadership could easily be unaware of what happened: let us face it, the use of violence in and by Pakistan is no more a state monopoly! Because many factors such as the absence of centralized political control, drug running militias, resurgent Taliban, Pakistan’s involvement in Afghanistan are responsible for the prevailing situation in Afghanistan, one variable alone cannot explain the state of affairs in that country.
Kashmir: Return of the 1990s?
Until a few months ago, no one would have imagined that the relative peace and stability that had returned to the violence-hit Jammu and Kashmir state would soon start disappearing. Today, apart from the disconnect that there exists between the people and the government, there is also an uncomfortable uneasiness between the various religious communities in the state. No leading politician of the state has till date tried to bring the communities together and create the conditions for peace; they are busy politicking in view of the impending state assembly elections in the state. Political instability and lack of credible and visionary political leadership are, again, giving rise to a condition that is conducive for violence and discontentment in the state.
While many in the Pakistani establishment might want to see an end to its misadventure in Kashmir, those promoting violence in Kashmir from Pakistan continue to do so because there are such deep divisions among the ruling elite in Pakistan on Kashmir today. While “one Pakistan” talks the language peace and genuinely wants to have peace with India, the “other Pakistan” does not want to have peace with India and works towards undermining the peace process. The good news is that the peace process seems to be retaining the ability and momentum to survive the sustained attacks from those who want to derail it; the bad news is that even though the governments in the region seems to be wanting to control violence in the region, they don’t seem to be able to do so.
(Happymon Jacob is Assistant Professor, Department of Strategic and Regional Studies, University of Jammu)
Source: Greater Kashmir, JULY 09, 2008. URL: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/full_story.asp?Date=9_7_2008&ItemID=13&cat=11
