Saturday, January 14, 2012

The scope of hope

All is not ‘unwell’ in Pakistan

STATECRAFT BY HAPPYMON JACOB


AN overwhelming amount of research and commentary on the ongoing turmoil in contemporary Pakistan seems to be overly pessimistic in nature and is seemingly reaching the conclusion that Pakistan is on the brink of a political collapse. Are such arguments accurate? Are we not looking at what is happening in Pakistan with an excessive amount of concern and fearful uncertainty primarily because our analytical faculties are so used to perceiving what happens in Pakistan in a negative, critical and pessimistic light? In other words, our traditional understanding that ‘nothing good can come out of Pakistan’ has perhaps shaped our perceptions of that country. I argue that while it is true that the Pakistani state is going through a great deal of internal turmoil and may, indeed, be facing political uncertainty, all is not ‘unwell’ in today’s Pakistan. It is possible to decipher some positive developments from the current political turmoil that the country is passing through.

Let’s try and deconstruct what is happening in today’s Pakistan and figure out the good news from our neighboring country amidst all the bad news that is coming from there.

First of all, let us be clear that by not (yet) staging a coup Pakistan army is not doing a favour to the country’s fledgling democracy: it is not doing so because it is simply not in a position to do so. Had the same confluence of circumstances existed a decade ago, Pakistan would have already been under military rule. Things have changed so drastically in contemporary Pakistan that the army realizes that it would be doing great disservice to itself by forcefully taking over the reins of the country. Moreover, the popular mood in today’s Pakistan is against any sort of military takeover and in the event of a military coup, the people are unlikely to react positively let alone welcome it. This is clearly unlike the previous occasions when the military staged coups in Pakistan as large amounts of people used to welcome the coup or used to openly invite the military to dethrone the corrupt civilian leaders.

Moreover, had the civilian establishment summarily dismissed the military secretary (a former army General sharing a close relationship with the army top brass) and appointed a civilian in his place a decade ago, it would have been almost impossible for the civilian establishment to get away with that. But it seems to be…now!

Second, the immensely powerful Pakistani media also doesn’t support a military coup. The editorial of the Express Tribune (Pakistan) on January 13, 2012 was unambiguously entitled “Not another coup, please”!! The media revolution has transformed the political and discursive landscape in Pakistan. While on the one hand it is promoting multi-vocality in framing political debates in the country, it is also nearly impossible to silence the Pakistani media today: there are too many of them to control and the social media is just not controllable.

Third, take a look at the political discourse in Pakistan in the past month. It’s dominated by debates and discussions on the political future of Pakistan, civil-military relations, strengthening of democratic institutions and the role and jurisdiction of parliament and judiciary in the governance of Pakistan and NOT by discussions on jihadi and Islamic extremism. This is certainly a welcome narrative from Pakistan where Islamic militancy and jihadi discourses have tended to dominate the public sphere for many years now. Siasat is the hot topic in Pakistan today, not jihad!

Fourth, Pakistan’s judiciary has had a history of being subservient to the Political masters or military dictators; not anymore. The judiciary has realized its rightful and constitutionally-mandated role and has started behaving in an assertive manner. Both the military and the civilian government are worried what the judiciary will do next and that is a welcome change and that bodes well for a fledgling democracy such as Pakistan. Clearly, if the Pakistani judiciary behaves in the manner in which it is supposed to, as the guardian of the Constitution, it will further check the abuse of power by the Pakistani civilian government and the military.

Fifth, consider the proliferation of political debates in Pakistan’s Parliament. The growing amount of political debates and arguments in today’s Pakistani Parliament shows that political parties are willing to consider this as an important institution and platform for conducting political business and are not trying to make deals or do business with the generals which used to be the case once upon a time. Moreover, the increasing interest and participation of Pakistan’s youngsters in politics is also an indication of the positive changes to come. The very fact that Pakistanis are eagerly watching the political debates in their Parliament and are following the legal arguments between the judiciary and the executive shows that they are looking in the right direction and right actors to understand the future of the Pakistani nation. In the yester years, Pakistanis would have looked at or towards the army to sense what is likely to happen or would have expected the army to set things right in the country.

Finally, faced with debilitating internal power struggles, state leaders sometimes engage in what is called ‘diversionary war tactic’. Pakistani leaders could have diverted attention from its internal turmoil by upping the ante against India which it has done in the past. But it did not choose to do so this time.

For those who think that politics is a conflict-free and noise-free process need to understand that since politics essentially deals with the distribution of resources and power, it cannot function without the din and noise that is usually associated with it. Looking at contemporary Pakistani politics from such an analytical angle would serve us better in appreciating more fully what Pakistan is going through these days.

(Source: Greater Kashmir, 15 January 2012. URL: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2012/Jan/15/the-scope-of-hope-4.asp )

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