Modi’s Coronation Diplomacy

Statecraft

HAPPYMON JACOB

By inviting the leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations to attend his swearing in ceremony in New Delhi, and not the leaders of other states, the Prime Minister-designate of India has shown that he is able to think out of the box on foreign policy. The invite signifies a number of things: 1) that New Delhi intends to put more focus on relations with the region in the days ahead, 2) it wishes to start off on cordial terms with its neighbours some of whom are not exactly in New Delhi’s good books, 3) by doing so, Narendra Modi has sent out a message that he is in charge of what his government will be doing on foreign policy and that he wants to start afresh, and 4) Modi government is signaling that it has a good sense of what should India’s foreign policy be like that it will hit the ground running on that front.

 
Modi’s Dilemma

That said, Modi government’s calculations might have hit a roadblock with the terror attack on the Indian consulate in Afghanistan’s Herat province the other day. Although no lives have been lost, with New Delhi indirectly putting the blame on Pakistan for the attack (India’s official statement said: "The main threat to Afghanistan and its peace and stability and security stems from terrorism beyond its borders”) and Kabul agreeing with that, the new government has landed itself in a dilemma. Modi had earlier accused the Congress-led government of being soft on Pakistan’s repeated provocations on the Line of Control: "The heads of our soldiers are cut but then their Prime Minister is fed chicken biryani”. Earlier, during the Kargil crisis, he had said "We won't give them chicken biryani; we will respond to a bullet with a [nuclear] bomb”. Can Modi not be accused of feeding chicken Biryani to Pakistan’s Prime Minister when the Indian mission in Afghanistan is under attack by elements from Pakistani soil? Let’s wait and watch how this is going to unfold.

 
Sharif’s Domestic Troubles

Moreover, that the attack in Herat comes soon after Modi invited Sharif to attend his swearing in ceremony is also significant given the fact that there has been some unease within the Pakistan army establishment and the ISI about Sharif’s visit to New Delhi. Indeed, there are conflicting views within Pakistan on Modi’s invite to Sharif. The political establishment in Pakistan seems to be in favour of Sharif’s visit with Pakistan’s Leader of Opposition in the National Assembly Khurshid Ahmed Shah urging Sharif to accept the invitation, as it would be in the interest of the people of the two countries. The Pakistan Foreign Office has been pushing for it too. However, there have been no positive signals from the Pakistan army. Also, LeT chief Hafiz Saeed has publicly expressed his unease with the Sharif’s potential visit to New Delhi. 

For Nawaz Sharif, this is a catch 22 situation: Damned if Sharif turns up in New Delhi, damned if he doesn’t turn up. If he actually makes it to Modi’s swearing in, Sharif will be castigated by the Pakistan army and the jihadi elements in Pakistan and risking that may not be very wise for him given that he has so far managed to keep things in control in Pakistan. On the other hand, if he now decides not to come it would mean a number of things. First of all, it will be interpreted as the Pakistan army’s way of showing him his place in the system. Secondly, it will certainly be seen that he cannot take any independent foreign policy decisions regarding India. Thirdly, it will undoubtedly weaken Sharif’s position in the days to come. And finally, he will lose out on a golden opportunity to build a personal rapport with India’s new leader besides losing out on the opportunity to engage Modi government’s new regional strategy. 

New Delhi Needs to Reciprocate

 On the positive side though, most of the leaders Modi has invited have confirmed their participation. From the Sri Lankan President to the Afghan President, the list figures the-who-is-who in the South Asian region. This is a rare moment in Indian diplomacy when it gives up on its desire to constantly court the West and is willing to engage the states in the region. One is unsure how long this engaging the neighbourhood strategy is going to last. If past is any indication of the future, the trend may not last too long. For instance, the outgoing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited the United States nine times during his two terms, which is exactly the number of times he visited the eight SAARC countries put together. New Delhi’s not so warm attitude towards Islamabad was, in a sense, visible from the number of times the Prime Minister of India visited Pakistan in the past ten years: zero. This is despite the fact that Pakistani leaders visited New Delhi three times in the past ten years: Ex-Pakistani presidents Pervez Musharraf and Asif Zardari and ex-prime ministers Yousaf Raza Gilani and Raja Pervez Ashraf visited India while in office.

(Source: Greater KAshmir, May 25, 2014. URL: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2014/May/25/modi-s-coronation-diplomacy-23.asp) 

India ‘Modi’fied

Statecraft

HAPPYMON JACOB

India has unequivocally voted Narendra Modi to be the county’s 14th Prime Minister with his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, securing a simple majority on its own, something that no political party managed to achieve in the last 30 years. Change was clearly coming, and it was even necessary, one way or another. Defeat of the Congress party is indicative of the maturity of Indian democracy, but the rise of the BJP takes the nation towards an uncertain future. The ruling congress party took us for granted and believed that our discomfort with communal politics was sufficient to defend against the Modi wave. More pertinently, it would be completely off the mark to even think that Modi’s victory shows that the people of India have voted in favour of Hindu Chauvinism. It might suit the Sangh Parivar to think so but they would be fundamentally mistaken in doing so. People have voted for change, development and coherent policies and Modi just happened to reap the benefit this vote. 

Even as I so dearly wanted the people of India to teach the Congress party a few lessons in humility, accountability and more importantly democracy, I am personally not elated by a Modi victory. But then democratic politics is about dealing with what you have, even though you might try and alter it. In a democracy, we do not have the choice of refusing to accept the people’s verdict. The only choice we have is to endavour to ensure that the new regime abides by the principles of democracy, secularism and equality, and that it does not take the country towards a future where we will be collectively worse off. 

What are some of the potential implications of Modi’s victory for the country?  Let me start with a positive note. One of the essential characteristics of power acquired through democratic means is that it tends to smoothen the ideological and sectarian rough edges of the power-holder and hence the Modi government might potentially realize the need to follow a more inclusive policy than a divisive one. Engaging in divisive politics could distract them from delivering on the promises made all these years primarily that of economic growth and development. So even though they may have come to power through the use of hate mongering, once in power it would be prudent for them to shun its use.

More importantly, whatever may be the personal likes and dislikes of Modi and the political persuasions of the Sangh Parivar, the fact remains that neither of them can simply wish away the reality that India is a multi-cultural, multi-religious and multi-national country and the diversity and differences are far too many to be done away with, unless of course they are prepared to vanish millions of people! 
On the question of BJP’s foreign policy, I have always held that India’s foreign policy, under normal circumstances, is only likely to be more coherent and purposeful under a rightwing government. A BJP-led government is more likely to pursue an economic agenda in its international relations and as a result one might even see improvements in Sino-Indian relations. But the real test would come when Modi sarkar will have to deal with crisis situations, especially with Pakistan. 

The real concern though is that of the past, of what happened to the thousands of hapless Muslims in Gujarat, of how in Modi’s Gujarat Muslims often feel as second class citizens. Can we forgive and forget this past and move on? Perhaps not. It is this burden of the past that will haunt the future of Mr. Modi, his government and us as a nation. And it is this past that should make us more vigilant and watchful so that we make sure that this country is not taken towards more communal disharmony in the name of growth and development. Indeed, we have a responsibility in doing so. We can either resign to our comfort zones blaming the electoral outcome and do nothing about it, or get out of our comforting ‘blame zones’ and keep up the vigil. 

While the BJP’s good showing in the elections preempts any potential use of excuses for misgovernance, such a free hand could also be used to fundamentally transform the country’s institutions and its national mindset. We did see the slow but steady penetration of right wing politics into the country’s institutions and political culture during the Vajpayee regime despite the fact that Vajpayee was a better, moderate statesman, and it was a coalition government. Institutions of higher learning and school curriculums were being affected and new university departments were being set up to further the rightwing agenda of the Sangh. If this happened under those far more constraining conditions, this will be a certainty under the less constraining conditions in which Modi Sarkar would be functioning. 

In short, it would not be out of place to say that Modi’s victory may not be bad news for India’s foreign policy ‘under normal circumstances’, but his assumption to power may not be great news for the country’s domestic politics, communal relations, subaltern assertions, and empowerment of its minorities. But then, in the life of a nation, its domestic politics clearly takes precedence over its foreign relations.

(Source: Greater Kashmir, May 18, 2014. URL: http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2014/May/18/india-modi-fied-11.asp)